Last week marked a significant inflection point in digital media, as news of the approval of AT&T and Time Warner's mega-merger quickly reverberated throughout the media ecosystem, causing players of all types to ask themselves what else in media might be for sale. Media executives are grappling with the implications that come with the impending M&A fervor, however the larger question connects to the fact that open ecosystems are changing, adapting and becoming closed.
Closed ecosystems didn’t necessarily start with Google and Facebook but they are huge contributors. In 2011, Comcast bought NBCU beginning what would be the media shakeup we live in today. In 2015, Verizon acquired AOL, followed by Yahoo in 2016. The idea that everything is for sale now did not start yesterday. Recall the multi-billion-dollar merger of Time Warner and AOL in 2000 and the resulting failure – one of many during the dotcom bubble. The positive verdict for AT&T yesterday has indeed reaffirmed that media mega-mergers can happen and will continue to promote further consolidation. What is the worry?
OATH owned by Verizon (AOL, Yahoo, MSN Advertising and associated O&O properties) attribute to a large percentage of ad traffic to DSPs and are major players. But it is in owning that content, online and offline that truly should worry the trader, average American or anyone concerned about monopolistic protections. As consolidation continues, have adtech companies looked at the risk and reward of their partnerships with major publishers and media corporations to understand the implications? Have they built out better relationships, contracts and ways to manage the changes they face?
The flood gates are open, now that Disney is in the conversation to compete with Comcast NBCU to buy Fox and the major media owners are coming together to create their own closed systems. No one forget the long bitter merger conversations between CBS and Viacom and the many smaller guys but the street is focused on these big three Disney, Comcast and FOX waiting for the next move. The rest are looking harder and encouraged by the outcome of yesterday’s case.
The situation and questions we face today are not new to the world of media. However, they are very important in looking towards the future. We will have an already behemoth, Comcast NBCU, acquiring SKY TV, with the goal to model products similar to Netflix. Would the addition of FOX help fulfill that vision, for sure. Think control of another studio to build new content, additional outlets for ad income and subscription services. In a competitive market with tighter margins, debts reducing stockholder dividends and stakeholders asking questions, we have not taken into consideration the true cost of our evolution as an industry.
Is everything for sale now? Are we that close to a true inflection point in media and advertising that is inclusive of all formats and content wherever they live? Is consolidation the best idea closed ecosystems? Are we moving in the right direction to offer our clients and consumers the best outcomes? Is the statement that we are looking to reduce pricing, increase access, (as was inferred by AT&T) for the consumers good through acquisition accurate? Those questions, I will leave to you, the industry.